February is often the month when leadership feels most exposed.
By now, organisations like Communities 1st are expected to be operating as though the year ahead is settled. Budgets should be agreed. Plans signed off. Staff reassured. Services confirmed. And yet, across Hertfordshire and beyond, many voluntary and community organisations are doing all of that without knowing, with certainty, what their funding position will actually be.
In practical terms, the distance between when services must commit and when commissioners can confirm has widened. Where once funding decisions were usually agreed before Christmas, it is now increasingly common for organisations to enter the new financial year still waiting for final confirmation. Sometimes decisions land weeks - even months - after April has begun. That doesn’t stop delivery. It just changes who carries the risk, and when.
This is not a complaint. It is a description of how the system is currently behaving.
At Communities 1st, this shows up very tangibly. We are setting budgets that need to be robust enough to give trustees confidence, realistic enough to protect the organisation, and flexible enough to absorb late decisions. We are continuing to employ people, support partners, host activity, and run services that local communities rely on - while knowing that some commissioner decisions are still live, still shifting, or still dependent on changes elsewhere in the system.
Voluntary sector leaders are, in effect, holding multiple versions of the future at the same time - not as an intellectual exercise, but as a practical necessity. Funding may land on time, be delayed, or shift in focus, and all of those possibilities feel live in February.
Alongside this sits the responsibility of reassurance. Speaking honestly to staff without transferring anxiety. Being clear about what we know, what we don’t, and what we are preparing for - without resorting to false certainty or unnecessary alarm. That balance matters, because uncertainty is felt whether it is named or not. Leadership, in moments like this, is as much about containment as it is about direction.
This year, that uncertainty is sharpened by wider structural change. The consultation on Local Government Reorganisation has already introduced a period of movement and anticipation across Hertfordshire. Conversations about future governance, boundaries and responsibilities are happening at the same time as organisations are trying to lock down operational plans for the year ahead. Even where nothing has formally changed yet, the expectation of change shapes behaviour.
Health systems are in a similar position. From April, Integrated Care Boards are due to merge, bringing Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough together with Luton, Bedford and Milton Keynes into a new Central East Integrated Care Board. For those of us working closely with health partners, this matters. Budgets, priorities, relationships and decision-making routes are all in the process of being reconfigured. Commissioners are managing transition alongside delivery. Voluntary sector partners are being asked to continue supporting people and communities while the shape of the system they sit alongside is still emerging.
It influences the pace of decisions, the confidence with which commitments are made, and the degree to which organisations feel able to plan beyond the immediate horizon. It also reinforces a familiar pattern: during periods of system transition, responsibility doesn’t disappear - it shifts.
When clarity is delayed at one level, it doesn’t disappear — it is redistributed. If funding decisions are not confirmed, someone still has to decide whether to renew contracts, hold vacancies, extend services or commit to premises. If commissioning arrangements are in transition, delivery plans still need to be agreed, performance managed, and issues handled in real time. In practice, much of that uncertainty is absorbed by voluntary and community organisations so that it does not immediately fall on staff, volunteers or the people using services.
This is a form of pressure that is rarely visible from the outside. It does not show up neatly in reports or dashboards, but it shapes everyday leadership decisions. It involves setting budgets that balance realism with reassurance, having open conversations with trustees about risk, and maintaining stability for teams while operating without full confirmation. It also means making decisions that are good enough to move forward, while knowing they may need to be revisited.
February’s wider markers sit quietly alongside this reality.
This is also the month in which stories of identity, belonging and equity quietly thread through the wider landscape. UK LGBTQ+ History Month encourages us to look back at the pathways that have brought us here — and to notice what progress still feels tentative or necessary in everyday workplaces, services and communities. Race Equality Week reminds us that change is built not through grand gestures but through continual, everyday actions that shape how people experience inclusion, opportunity and belonging. Safer Internet Day nudges our sector to think about shared responsibilities in a world where digital life is ever more present in the way we connect, inform and support one another. And Lunar New Year brings a rhythm of renewal that doesn’t erase what came before, but invites reflection and gentle celebration of fresh starts.
These moments matter precisely because they are not conditional on certainty. They happen anyway. They remind us that communities continue to live, mark, remember and celebrate even when systems are unsettled.
From where I sit, this is a period of sustained strain rather than crisis. Work is continuing, decisions are being taken, and responsibility is being held day by day, even while parts of the system are still in flux.
There is a temptation, when systems are in flux, to talk about transformation as though it can be neatly scheduled once everything settles down. In reality, very little ever fully settles. Most meaningful change happens under imperfect conditions. Services evolve while budgets are provisional. Partnerships deepen while structures are still being negotiated. Judgement is exercised without the comfort of final answers.
This is where leadership becomes less about vision statements and more about holding responsibility well - holding complexity and uncertainty without simplifying it for reassurance or passing it on, and holding space for staff, partners and communities while decisions are still forming elsewhere.
By Stephen Craker, Chief Executive of Communities 1st
